Sunday, February 17, 2008

Demise of the GOP

So there's an op-ed piece in the NYT from an Obama supporter conjecturing that an Obama victory in 08 would be a signal that the GOP is on it's way out:

I guess the question I would have for the author is: If McCain wins the election, does that spell the end for the Democratic party? I mean, if I follow your rhetoric, McCain is old, white, and representative of people who support slavery (way to play the race card in proxy, btw). Meanwhile, Obama is great, wonderful, supports whatever version of his nebulous promise of change is convenient for the listener, and should win in a landslide.

The problem I see for your theory is fundamentally the same reason Kerry lost to Bush in 04. It's not like the country liked Bush; over 50% of the people disliked him, I'd say. But Bush was the evil people knew, and Kerry was the candidate promising the nebulous "not Bush" policies. Eventually, he proved that nebulous promises without substance could not win a campaign for president, even if the other candidate is not well liked.

But it's even worse for the democrats, cause there's really no way out of the political hole they have dug for themselves. If they stay nebulous, they can keep flip-flopping with the winds, but they would lose the general election to a religious nut, and certainly to a more moderate republican like McCain. Alternatively, they can get specific with some policies and plans, but that means they take more of a hit when they flip-flop on them, and fracture opinion within their own party (since you can't view the nebulous idea as whatever you wanted it to be any more), and more likely than not, as Hillary as aptly demonstrated, you're pretty likely to be viewed as a moron by people who aren't strong supporters when they realize the idiocy of your actual plans.

McCain is positioning himself as the evil we know, say it like it is, do what he thinks is right candidate, and I give him a good chance of winning on that platform. A much greater chance, I'd think, than either the nebulous "not Bush" platform or the "here's the specifics of my moronic socialist direction for the country" platform. I'd agree that this election is the best opportunity for the Democratic party in a long time. So I ask, if the dems lose this election, which seemed locked up not even a year ago, could we say that they are just incapable of nominating a candidate who can win an election ever again?

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