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Why Context, Reputation, and Perception Matter, Presidential Edition

Here's an unpopular opinion, at least among Democrats currently: President Trump has every right to not concede the election, and to pursue any legal avenues he wants to ensure that any issues with the vote are corrected (short of using the DOJ to do so, which would have the potential effect of influencing the outcome). So, then, why are more moderate people not supportive of his efforts to do so? Imagine, if you will, a hypothetical world in which Trump is a reasonable, well balanced, well spoken individual, with a track record of honesty and careful consideration of all perspectives (you may need to imagine someone other than Trump, as this is about as far afield of reality as one could imagine). Let's imagine, the day after the election, after not having claimed victory in an absurdly ridiculous rambling press conference filled with lies (remember, in this hypothetical, Trump is not himself), you give a speech something akin to this: This is proving to be a very close electi...

The Importance of Understanding Gray Area

I have a frequent debate with a person at work, who shall remain nameless, about whether or not an expression of a percentage chance of an outcome has any validity. That is, his opinion is that it has no value for someone to opine that they believe an event has a certain percentage chance of occurring; in his mind, this is a non-statement, and the only valid expression of this form is a binary opinion: yes or no. In contrast, I think it's perfectly valid to say you think an event has a percentage chance of happening; that is, I think that statement has meaning. (You may think his opinion is absurd, as I do, or that my opinion is absurd; I'm not going to debate the merits of either per se. Rather, I'm going to write about why I think the ability to understand my perspective is important, in the broader sense.) The main reason he holds this opinion, I believe, is that you cannot "guess check" an opinion on an outcome which is expressed as a percentage chance. That i...

On Housing, and the Upcoming Rental Issue

I want to write a bit about what I perceive as issues with the housing market in the US, but first a hot and very controversial take: rent should be automatically cancelled for renters in months where they have a significant and documented financial hardship. I'll let that simmer, and get back to it; first, though, what's wrong with the housing market. Housing, like food, water, and basic medical care (and clothing, to a lesser extent) is in most cases a necessity of life in a modern society. You need access to food and water to live, clothing and shelter to protect from the elements, and basic medical care for ailments which would otherwise dramatically shorten the general societal life expectancy (eg: stopping bleeding, setting bones, antibiotics, etc.). These could be considered the "basic essentials" of a modern civilized society, and most countries have figured out ways to make each of them generally available to everyone. This is not without cost, though, and th...