The problem with negotiating with Iran

This week, Israel unilaterally attacked Iran, under the pretense of having credible intelligence that their genocidal adversary was close to manufacturing a nuclear bomb, and that military action was necessary to prevent that outcome. The two countries have been lobbing munitions at each other since (Israel is precision bombing military facilities, while Iran is firing ballistic missiles seemingly intended to inflict the maximum amount of civilian casualties, as per their stated genocidal national goal).

As for the validity of the pretense, there's no reasonable doubt that Iran is building toward a nuclear weapon. They have been enriching Uranium far beyond what would be required for energy production, building hidden enrichment facilities in very secure underground locations, developing and acquiring missile technology, etc. Any claim that Iran was not working intently to produce a nuclear weapon is patently absurd on the face of all the evidence (Iran's transparent lies notwithstanding); the only real unknown would be the timing of such, and given Israel's intelligence apparatus (and relative risk of attacking), there's little reason to doubt their claims.

Since the war began, various people have been calling for an end to hostilities and resumption of negotiations. This includes most of the rest of the world, inclusive of the US, EU countries, Iran's allies (China and Russia, primarily), etc. Purportedly, even Iran has signaled a willingness to negotiate with a cease fire, despite public rhetoric of ceaseless retaliation (and genocide, as per their existing national stance).

The problem is: for Iran, diplomacy is effectively just capitulation to their acquisition of nuclear weapons. Iran has made deals in the past, then immediately violated them. They don't allow effective oversight of their nuclear program, because of course they are trying to build a nuclear bomb. The string along negotiations (especially with gullible people, such as Trump), to allow cover to proceed with their development. In short, there's no scenario in which negotiations or diplomacy would have any tangible effect on slowing the progress of Iran's nuclear weapons development ambitions or actuality.

Meanwhile, the US, EU, and especially Israel have re-affirmed that Iran cannot be allowed to possess nuclear weapons. For the US and the EU, this is a matter of geopolitical strategy; for Israel, though, this is literally an existential threat and matter of survival (given, again, the stated genocidal intent of the Iranian regime). Where the US and EU have the luxury of knowingly "being played" via diplomacy and empty promises, Israel must act, as they have.

Which brings us to the problem at hand: diplomacy and negotiations are not a viable strategy to achieve the main goal (of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons). They never were, in actuality; the US just had the luxury of pretending they were, and kicking the can down the road somewhat. But now we're at the point where meaningful action is required, and that is playing out... and it must continue to play out, until the research and development capability is set back enough to create some additional breathing space. Then, and only then, will negotiations and the next meaningless "deal" (which Iran will immediately ignore as they continue to pursue nuclear weapons) be able to be done.

Until then, the military action needs to play out, and the best thing other countries could do to minimize overall causalities would be to help bomb Iran's nuclear research and development facilities. Anyone calling for negotiations at this point is either on Iran's side, stupid, or isn't really interested in saving lives in the long run. That said, I also don't think anyone else's opinions really matter either: a nuclear armed Iran represents a grave existential threat to Israel and all the people there, and as such I would expect Israel to effectively ignore the meaningless gestures and transparent pandering, and focus on solving that problem until the necessary work is done.