Reflections on Procreation

Every once in a while, I have occasion to reflect on the act of having children, and whether or not it can be justified in the existential sense. I have children, and have made the choice to have them, so for me it's more or less a post facto analysis, but still a somewhat interesting philosophical one.

Some pundits have made a big deal about the idea that declining birth rates in first-world countries is a societal problem (eg: https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/30/health/elon-musk-population-collapse-wellness/index.html). This is not, generally, a problem currently, as birth rates in poorer and less educated areas more than make up for declines in procreation among the wealthy and educated. There is, certainly, a valid but more nuanced argument that the shifting demographics as a result of who chooses to procreate is degrading the quality of the gene pool for humanity, but that's not a very politically correct argument to make in public, so most people steer clear. I'm not going to focus on it either, except to note that it is objectively reasonable, and probably an existential concern over time.

I think the more material philosophical push-back is whether or not it's ethically reasonable to dump a child into the world as it is, and as it's evolving.

There is a valid observation that, historically, people have a tendency to undervalue their current situation and focus on the negatives. Objectively, the world now is better than before the advent of antibiotics, for example, or periods like the middle ages. However, there are currently significant real and pressing concerns which humanity seems utterly unwilling or unable to deal with. Things like climate change and wealth inequality are presenting persistent threats to global stability, and threats like nuclear annihilation haven't gone away. Moreover, humanity seems intent on trying to build AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), which (if we're successful) will almost certainly also end humanity as we know it, and yet we persist anyway. Humanity has a lot of problems, and while in some cases it's unclear exactly what forces are propagating those problems, it's very clear that as a species, we are entirely incapable of addressing them.

Children born today will have to live in a world where those issues present an existential threat which cannot be mitigated. At best, they will need to try to make the best lives for themselves as possible, while knowing that the world will be worse for people in the future, and there is nothing which they can do about it. The best option for happiness they will have will likely be escapism, and living in some simulation of "good" while the rest of the world crumbles around them, for as long as possible. That is, in totality, not an incredibly attractive proposition.

Can it be ethically justified to procreate in this world? I don't know. There is certainly not a cut and dry answer to that question in my mind, although perhaps in one or two more generations, it'll be more clear.